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Stock Markets from voting machines to weighing machines

ByNikhil Naik

The results are out for the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. This could probably be the biggest event of the year. 
 

Against the exit poll projection of 360–400 seats for the BJP-led NDA and upwards of 320 for the BJP alone, the final tally is more like 292 for the NDA and 240 for the BJP. This has not been the expected outcome and has led to markets reacting sharply. 

 
The markets gave a thumbs down to the election results and fell by almost 6%. 

 
Although this fall looks very sharp, if we zoom out a bit and look at the rise on Monday, June 3rd June, the drop is -2.9%.  
 

And if we zoom out further, the returns that NIFTY has given since January 1st, 2024, are +2.98%. 

FYTD: Financial year from 1st April 2024 

CYTD: Current year from 1st January 2024 

Elections in the past have always shown sharp movements pre- and post-event, but history has shown that the markets finally stabilize one to six months post-event. Over the past five elections dating back to 1999, Indian equity markets have always given positive returns six months after the elections. This includes coalition governments being formed and outcomes less favourable than the current one.

Our View 

In the next few days, there will be a lot of action on the political side. 

Both the NDA and INDIA alliance will try to seek power. 
 
With the BJP and its allies at the 290 mark, they should be able to form a government. However, in this case, markets would tread cautiously in the initial period. 
 
And maybe after a week or a month, things will settle down, and the focus will move to much long-term aspects of the economy. 

Bharat has seen a lot of reforms in the past few years, and some of the megatrends that have helped the economy. 

 
1. Digitalisation  
2. Financialization of the assets 
3. GST (more businesses being covered) 
4. China +1 
5. Above all, the growing young population. 


With all the above forces working for the country, it would be difficult for investors (both domestic and international) to avoid Bharat for a long time. 

What Should Investors Do? 

  1. Have a long-term view for your equity investments and avoid short-term reactions. 
  1. Have moderate expectations from the markets (we have been saying this for almost 18 months). 
  1. We have always believed that investing in quality fund managers who focus on quality stocks with robust cash flow can create long-term, sustainable wealth. 
  1. Avoid overexposure to sectoral, thematic, or momentum-based funds. 

 
When such times arise, it is best to stick to the basics. 

As Warren Buffet’s guru, Ben Graham has said, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”  – Ben Graham 

The Bharat story will continue to be strong and will continue to create wealth for the next few decades. 

Disclaimer: Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.